8-26-10 – Soybean Complex Market Recap Report
November Soybeans ended 15 1/2 higher at 1014 1/2, 1 1/2 off the high and 14 1/4 up from the low.
December Soybean Oil finished 0.36 higher at 40.08, 0.16 off the high and 0.33 up from the low.
December Soymeal closed 6.3 higher at 298.3. This was 6.3 up from the low and 0.2 off the high.
November soybeans posted a moderate gain during the last half of the overnight session and traded below that early high into early afternoon before surging to a new high for the day prior to the close. The late buying was credited to short covering that was triggered in part by late gains in the corn market. Traders said that supportive influences such as a lower dollar, higher crude oil and strong export sales outweighed more negative factors such as the start of the soybean harvest in the south. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 167,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 824,100 for next year for a total of 991,800 tonnes. China was the biggest buyer by far for both old and new crop. As of August 19, cumulative soybean sales stand at 37.6% of the USDA forecast for 2010/2011, well above the 5 year average of 20.4%. Net meal sales came in at 34,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 140,000 for next year for a total of 174,700. Net oil sales came in at 16,000 tonnes, all for the current marketing year. Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 98.8% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 versus a 5 year average of 77.9%. The US Census Bureau released its monthly crush report this morning. Total crush for July was estimated at 129.07 million bushels which was about 600-700,000 bushels above the average trade estimate. The monthly crush number was almost unchanged from June and up fractionally from last year. Oil stocks were slightly above trade expectations at 3.555 billion pounds with meal stocks well above expectations at 423,052 short tons.
8-26-10 – Corn Market Recap Report
September Corn ended up 11 3/4 at 416 1/2, 11 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high. December Corn settled 12 higher at 432. This was 11 1/2 up from the low and 3 off the high.
December corn advanced over most of the overnight session and then added to its gains throughout the day session. Traders said that stronger than expected export sales and a higher dollarboosted the market along with some buying by spreaders against wheat later in the day. Higher crude oil was also considered supportive. A more negative note came from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange which expects this year’s planted area for corn in Argentina to be up by 9% over last year to 2.865 million hectares. This week’s (US) net export sales for corn came in at 42,300 tonnes for the current marketing year and whopping 1,693,600 for next year for a total of 1,735,900. Japan was the biggest buyer in old and new crop combined followed by Egypt. China only bought 15,400 tonnes for old crop. To reach the USDA forecast sales need to average 799,000 tonnes. The USDA also announced a sale of 156,527 tonnes of US corn to Japan for delivery during the 2010/11 crop marketing year. This was not included on the weekly sales report. The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2010/11 world production estimate for corn to 829 million tonnes today from 823 million last month. This is well above last year’s total of just 809 million tonnes with the biggest gains coming in Africa and the US. However, the IGC also raised its projected usage for 2010/11 and this resulted in lower ending stocks.
November Rice ended up 0.085 at 11.62, 0.085 up from the low and 0.02 off the high.
Wheat Market Commentary Report for 8-26-10
September Wheat ended 8 3/4 higher at 656 1/2, 8 3/4 off the high and 6 3/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed 8 higher at 688 1/2. This was 9 1/2 off the high and 6 1/2 up from the low.
December wheat posted a moderate gain today following yesterday’s sharp losses. The day’s highs were posted in the first minutes of the day session with some erosion seen into early afternoon. Traders reported moderate activity in the wheat/corn spread as wheat made early gains before losing ground to corn later in the day. The EU cleared 856,000 tonnes of soft wheat for export this week, issuing the highest total licenses since the start of the current crop year on July 1st. Europe has gotten the lion’s share of soft wheat business that has been diverted from the Black Sea basin due to this summer’s drought in Russia. Traders said that the market was boosted by a lower dollar today along with talk of possible grain imports by Russia, strong US export sales and a reduction in the world wheat crop by the International Grains Council. US export sales came in at over 1.0 million tonnes today for the third week in a row. Net sales for wheat were 1,077,600 tonnes, all for the current marketing year with the biggest sale to an ‘unknown’ destination. Sales of hard red winter and hard red spring easily outpaced sales for soft red winter wheat. Sales need to average 480,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its estimate of 2010/11 world wheat production by 7 million tonnes from last month to 644 million. This was mainly due to a further reduction in Black Sea production with the Russian wheat crop lowered to 44 million tonnes from 50 million last month. Some private forecasters have already lowered the Russian crop to as low as 41.5 million with the USDA’s latest estimate at 45 million tonnes. The IGC raised total world wheat usage to 657 million tonnes which is still below the USDA’s estimate of about 665 million. They also noted that poor weather in parts of the EU, Ukraine, Australia, Kazakhstan and Russia could result in further reductions in the overall world wheat crop.
December Oats ended 5 higher at 279 1/2. This was 8 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.
After reading today’s commentary,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
This blog is reported by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, asset manager, trader, analyst and brokerfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. As a result, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his family, or his clients in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant to develop a dialogue and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage. Investing in the commodity futures could result in considerable risk. If you are interested in reading other published articles, commenting on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
The daily commentaries provide a review of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, and a look ahead at the next day’s schedule. CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, gold and silver. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.